Reasons to be cheerful part 3: Could global carbon emissions have peaked?

When net zero targets were drawn up at the start of the decade, they presented quite a challenge. They required steep falls in global emissions, with measurable progress made by 2030 to avoid the worst effects of climate change.

Many doubted whether they were realistically achievable, but the good news is that our collective efforts could have resulted in progress on slashing global emissions ahead of the 2030 deadline. In fact, some believe they may have already peaked.

So, what progress has been made to address the challenge of reducing global emissions?

Anyone looking at the latest statistics on global efforts to generate less carbon emissions (CO2) will be genuinely impressed with what they find. Global CO2 emissions for 2023 increased by only 0.1% relative to 2022 (following increases of 5.4% and 1.9% in 2021 and 2022, respectively), reaching 35.8 Gt CO2.¹

Most large countries in the G20 peaked in emissions some years ago, with China and India being the most significant ones still rising. However, these two countries are among many which have seen remarkable progress in the growth of renewable electricity capacity.

In 2024, Chinese solar power capacity was up 31% with wind power up 12%, compared with the first half of last year.² This puts the country on track to beat last year’s record installations. According to the global energy forum the Energy Agency’s (IEA)³ which published its Renewables 2024 report this month, the expected additions to capacity are impressive across the world:

From a policy perspective, at COP28 over 100 countries signed up to the tripling of renewables capacity and doubling energy efficiency. According to Ember, an independent UK global energy think tank, this could deliver 85% of the cuts in unabated fossil fuels required by 2030. 

By 2035, that level of growth in renewables and energy efficiency improvements have the potential to more than halve global CO2 emissions. Additionally, in May this year, the State Council (China’s top administrative body), issued an action plan on energy conservation and CO2 emission reductions in 2024–25. This was in response to a projected shortfall against ambitious 2025 carbon and energy intensity targets. The action plan calls for a reduction in both targets and lists numerous measures to be undertaken by China.⁴ 

Policies are likely to be reviewed and accelerated at this year’s COP29 and/or at the next round of Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)⁵ submissions in 2025. NDCs are national climate action plans drawn up by each country that signed up to The Paris Agreement to aid in the global goal of limiting temperature rise to 1.5°C and reduce the impact of climate change. Countries must outline and communicate their post-2020 climate actions every five years.

Lauri Myllyvirta, senior fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute and lead analyst at the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air updated his analysis for Carbon Brief in August 2024. It shows that China remains on track for his predicted decline in annual emissions this year.

If this happens, it would put the world on course for a fall as well. This annual outlook depends on growth in electricity demand easing in the second half of the year, as the China Electricity Council expects.

He is not alone among climate experts. Climate Analytics, another think tank, published a report last November that predicted a 70% chance of emissions starting to fall in 2024. If so, this would make 2023 the year of the global peak.

In the Nature article “Economic modelling fit for the demands of energy decision makers”,⁵ Pete Barbrook-Johnson and others observed a shift over the last fifteen years in public policy. They describe how it’s transitioned from debating about whether to act on climate change, to establishing economically beneficial energy transition policies.  
 
The same shift has been occurring with commercial enterprises over a similar time scale. Businesses that traditionally considered climate change only within their corporate socially responsible schemes are now strategically positioning themselves as the energy transition to a low carbon economy reshapes markets and supply chains.  
 
The scale of this structural shift is often unclear. Media focuses on the short-term setbacks in public policy progress, rather than acknowledging the real change and progress made in decarbonisation and technological developments on the ground. While the transformation may initially have been motivated by the need to act on climate change, high energy prices and falling renewable energy costs have accelerated it.

Thirty years ago, our lives looked vastly different to what they do today. The global proliferation of the mobile phone and the digital connectivity we have now come to rely on, was nowhere to be seen.  The Covid-19 pandemic has also transformed our lives and changed how we live and work. 

As a society, we can be transformative beings when we want to be. It looks like the push towards a rapid renewable energy transition with a corresponding reduction in carbon emissions is firmly on our list of collective wants.

1. Nature.com, Global carbon emissions 2023, 4 April, 2024
2. Carbonbrief.org, Analysis: China's CO2 falls 1% in Q2 2024 in first quarterly drop since Covid-19, 8 August 2024
3. IEA.org, Renewables 2024 - Analysis - IEA, October 2024
4. Scio.gov.cn; China releases 2024-25 energy conservation, carbon reduction plan, 30 May 2024
5. Nature.com; Economic modelling fit for the demands of energy decision makers, February 2024